Here it is, the blog you’ve been waiting all year for, my Oscar picks. I got ⅞ in the will win category last year, so listen up kids, this could win you some office Oscar pool money.
Rachel McAdams, Michael Keaton & Mark Ruffalo in Spotlight
Best Picture
Will Win: I got nothing. Early pundits all tapped Spotlight, but the PGA upset for The Big Short could be an oscar night precursor, and so could The Revenant’s Globes and BAFTA win. Could these three split the vote leaving room for something like The Martian? Yes. Maybe just don’t put any money on this category.
Should Win: Spotlight…Mad Max…apples…hand grenades. I have seen each film in theatres, twice. I was in awe both times. Spotlight tells a more important story, but Max represents more important possibilities in filmmaking. I’d take a first time best picture tie.
Charlize Theron in Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Director
Will Win: Iñárritu’s inexplicable DGA, Globes and BAFTA wins could give him the momentum he needs here, but 70 year old Mad Max helmer George Miller still has a lot of buzz going into February 28. Max, despite it’s less realistic, spectacular nature, is still a more subtle, human, film. That takes true directorial control.
Should Win: Really anyone except Iñárritu would be deserving in this category. Variety’s Justin Chang summed up what is so very problematic about The Revenant perfectly: “Iñárritu has managed to appropriate the beauty of Malick’s filmmaking but none of its sublimity – another word for which might be humility. There is plenty of amazement here, to be sure, but all too little in the way of grace.” When a film’s main character is its director, something (perhaps ego) has gone very awry.
Leonardo DiCaprio in The Revenant
Best Leading Actor
Will Win: Look at it this way, if they don’t give Leo this Oscar who knows what he’ll do next. In the interest of keeping him alive the Academy is going to give him this one.
Should Win: To be fair, Leo gave it his all, and the problems with his performance are rooted in the direction. That being said, I would love a Matt Damon upset. So much of The Martian’s success can be attributed to his wry yet endearing turn that was reminiscent of Sandra Bullock in Gravity, only funny.
Brie Larson & Jacob Tremblay in Room
Best Leading Actress
Will Win: Brie Larson has had frontrunner buzz since Room premiered at TIFF in September. The Globes, SAG and BAFTA wins are just a precursor for victory on Oscar’s night.
Should Win: Despite some pretty incredible female performances this year this role was challenging on a Monster level. I give Brie this Oscar just for the twenty minutes between rolling Jack up in the rug and racing towards the police car. In Room she’s doing the same thing Leo’s doing in The Revenant, except that she’s doing it without reminding us she’s acting.
Tom Hardy in The Revenant
Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: With a Critic’s Choice and Globe under his belt for Creed Sylvester Stallone is the favourite to win this career Oscar. Relatively speaking this is a strong performance from Stallone and nostalgia never hurts at the Oscars.
Should Win: Tom Hardy is simply the best. Not only in this category, but also in The Revenant. It boggles my mind that Leo has gotten so much attention, for albeit a more physically challenging role, when Hardy is the one that dominates every scene he’s in. Even if he doesn’t take home an Oscar this year he has unquestionably proven that he can act circles around post 90s Leo, and just about anyone else too. Honorable mention goes to Mark Ruffalo, that wonderful, underdog of a man.
Alicia Vikander in The Danish Girl
Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: With a Critic’s Choice and SAG award for this performance, this is Alicia Vikander’s to lose. With a star making year in four films this is the MVP Oscar that Jessica Chastain missed out on in 2012.
Should Win: Vikander missed out on a Globe and BAFTA for this role because she was nominated in the leading category. The breadth of her talent was epitomized in The Danish Girl and despite strong performances from everyone in this category Vikander is mesmerizing to watch in a way that the others are not.
Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: Spotlight has been the favourite in this category for months and it doesn’t seem like even Spike Lee pressuring the academy is going to change that.
Should Win: Spotlight is one of the most intelligent, most compelling films released in several years. In another year any film in this category would be an obvious front runner, but Spotlight is just too subtle, too pulsing, and too well written to be caught up with.
Jeremy Strong, Rafe Spall, Hamish Linklater, Steve Carell, Jeffry Griffin, & Ryan Gosling in The Big Short
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: With Aaron Sorkin out of the race, Adam Mckay’s The Big Short is the new front runner in a packed category. His win here will make up for the film being edged out of director and possibly picture.
Should Win: I love Nick Hornby, but, The Big Short deals with very complicated concepts and does so in a comprehensive and humorous way. This film could have glamourized and mansplained its way through this millennium’s big depression and the conditions that caused it, but it didn’t. You have to give Mckay, and Steve Carell, credit for that.
Biggest Snubs: Brie’s great, but Jacob Tremblay is the true lead in Room, and gave not only one of the best child performances of all time, but arguably the best performance of the year. His vulnerable, raw, and honest portrayal elevates the immensely contrived language of Donoghue’s script to the powerhouse film that Room is. Beyond that, the entire cast of Love and Mercy and Charlize Theron’s overwhelming turn in Mad Max. If she hadn’t already taken home a trophy for Monster, odds are she’d be the one to beat.